Über eine Empfehlung bei der „Commentary Magazine“ (Link) bin ich auf den Artikel
„The Myth of the Authoritarian Model: How Putin’s Crackdown Holds Russia Back“ von Michael McFaul und Kathryn Stoner-Weiss gekommen, den ich mit gutem Gewissen weiterreichen kann. Mit einem Satz, die russische Wirtschaft entwickelt sich nicht dank Putin, sondern trotz Putin. Einige Beispiele aus dem Text (Link):
In 2000, the year Putin was elected president, Russia had the second-fastest-growing economy in the post-Soviet region, behind only gas-rich Turkmenistan. By 2005, however, Russia had fallen to 13th in the region, outpacing only Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, both of which were recovering from „color revolutions.“ Between 1999 and 2006, Russia ranked ninth out of the 15 post-Soviet countries in terms of average growth. […] Kremlin officials and their public-relations operatives frequently evoke China as a model: a seemingly modernizing autocracy that has delivered an annual growth rate over ten percent for three decades. […] In the economic-growth race in the developing world, autocracies are both the hares and the snails, whereas democracies are the tortoises — slower but steadier. On average, autocracies and democracies in the developing world have grown at the same rate for the last several decades. […]
The Kremlin talks about creating the next China, but Russia’s path is more likely to be something like that of Angola — an oil-dependent state that is growing now because of high oil prices but has floundered in the past when oil prices were low and whose leaders seem more intent on maintaining themselves in office to control oil revenues and other rents than on providing public goods and services to a beleaguered population. Unfortunately, as Angola’s president, José Eduardo dos Santos, has demonstrated by his three decades in power, even poorly performing autocracies can last a long, long time.